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Friday, October 23, 2026

AI Sell-Off Drags Nasdaq Down 2.6% as 10-Year Yield Falls Below 5% and Oil Tops $113

Reading level

Key Indicators

S&P 500 (Thu close)

7,663.43

-1.2% (down)

Nasdaq Composite (Thu close)

26,008.86

-2.6% (down)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (Thu close)

52,867.98

+0.02% (up)

Russell 2000 (Thu close)

2,784.03

+0.1% (up)

10-Year Treasury Yield (Thu close)

4.97%

-16 bps (down)

Brent Crude (Thu close)

$113.17

+4% (up)

WTI Crude (Fri morning)

$100.75

+1.3% (up)

Market Recap

Thursday's close: tech sinks the Nasdaq while the Dow holds flat

U.S. stocks split sharply on Thursday, October 22. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% (93.74 points) to 7,663.43 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.6% (694 points) to 26,008.86, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up less than 0.1% (11.89 points) to 52,867.98. The Russell 2000 rose 0.1% to 2,784.03. The sell-off was concentrated in technology and AI-linked names, while defensive sectors such as consumer staples and health care rose as investors rotated out of tech.

Meta, Nvidia and AI hardware lead the declines

Meta fell about 7% even though revenue topped expectations, because it raised the low end of its 2026 capital spending forecast to a range of $135 billion to $145 billion and reported negative free cash flow, reviving worries about funding AI build-outs. Nvidia fell 4.4% and was the biggest single drag on the S&P 500. CoreWeave dropped about 10% on debt concerns after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said scarce capital is holding back smaller AI cloud providers. Tesla fell 3.1% as revenue came in below forecasts despite a profit beat. On the upside, Procter & Gamble gained about 6% on 4% organic sales growth, Spotify rose about 9% after reaching 306 million paying subscribers, and homebuilders such as Lennar rose as mortgage rates eased.

Treasury yields drop below 5% as oil climbs on Middle East fears

Investors bought bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 16 basis points to 4.97% from 5.13%, its first close below 5% since September 22, after trading above 5.30% earlier in October. Oil rose again on fears of a wider regional conflict after deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia: Brent jumped about 4% to $113.17 on Thursday and traded near $114.73 on Friday morning, while WTI was near $100.75 Friday morning, up 1.3%. Gold fell about 2% on Thursday to a more-than-two-month low near $4,061 as oil-driven inflation worries lifted rate expectations. Overseas, French 10-year yields were about 5.07% Friday morning, more than 170 basis points over Germany, as protests over government spending add pressure on public finances. U.S. markets are open today, Friday, October 23.

Concept of the Day

Flight to Safety

A flight to safety is a shift of money out of risky assets, such as growth stocks, and into assets seen as safe, most often U.S. Treasury bonds. Because bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, heavy buying of Treasuries pushes their yields down. That is why a sharp equity sell-off often coincides with a sharp drop in Treasury yields. The pattern is not guaranteed. Treasuries rally in a flight to safety when investors fear weaker growth or market stress. If instead the main worry is inflation, bonds can sell off along with stocks, because rising prices erode the fixed payments bonds offer. Gold usually behaves as a haven too, but it can fall when yields or rate expectations rise. To read a flight to safety, look at several signals together: the direction of Treasury yields, defensive sectors such as consumer staples and health care outperforming, and volatility measures rising. When these line up, the market is pricing in risk aversion rather than a single-company story.

Why it matters

Thursday fit the pattern. The Nasdaq fell 2.6% on the AI sell-off, the 10-year yield dropped 16 basis points to 4.97%, and consumer staples and health care rose. But oil near $113 for Brent complicates it: gold fell about 2% on inflation worries, so the safe-haven bid went to Treasuries rather than bullion. With the Fed deciding on rates on October 28, bond investors are weighing slower growth against an oil-driven inflation risk.

What to Watch

Wed, Oct 28

FOMC rate decision (2:00 PM ET, press conference 2:30 PM ET)

The Fed's decision lands with Brent above $113 and the 10-year yield just below 5%, setting the tone for rate-sensitive assets.