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Friday, October 16, 2026

Dow Rallies 557 Points as Rotation Out of Tech Offsets a Blistering PPI

Reading level

Key Indicators

S&P 500 (Thu close)

7,744.06

+0.33% (up)

Nasdaq Composite (Thu close)

26,713.03

+0.08% (up)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (Thu close)

52,177.69

+1.08% (up)

10-Year Treasury yield

~5.05%

-~13 bps (down)

WTI Crude Oil

$97.97

+3.03% (up)

Gold (Dec futures)

$4,170.10

+1.51% (up)

Market Recap

Thursday's close: Dow leads as money rotates out of tech

U.S. stocks recovered from a weak open on Thursday, October 15, to finish higher despite a much hotter-than-expected producer price report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 556.80 points, or 1.08%, to 52,177.69. The S&P 500 rose 0.33% to 7,744.06 and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.08% to 26,713.03. Investors rotated out of AI and tech names on doubts about the return on AI infrastructure spending and a memory chip glut, and into other areas; health care hit a record high, with the sector up about 2.25%.

PPI explodes, but rate-hike odds fall

September producer prices rose 1.3% from August against an expected 0.6% and 6.3% from a year earlier against 5.5% expected, the largest 12-month rise since 2022. Excluding food, energy and trade, PPI rose 0.5% on the month and 5% on the year. Energy, especially gasoline (up 20.3% in September), drove much of the jump. Yet CME FedWatch put the chance of a Fed hike at 27.1%, down more than six points from Wednesday's 37%, with roughly 73% odds of no change. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 13 bps to roughly 5.05%, a three-week low, after touching above 5.32% the prior morning.

Movers: CoreWeave bounces, Rocket Lab slides

CoreWeave rebounded 5.94% to $69.69 after falling 15.46% on Wednesday, while Nebius dropped sharply before a late bounce. Lam Research fell as much as 7% intraday. Rocket Lab slid 6.6% after delaying the first launch of its Neutron rocket to 2027. Nike rose more than 5%. Schwab fell despite record net new assets.

Oil and gold

WTI crude settled at $97.97, up $2.88 or 3.03%, while Brent settled at $105.92, down $0.14. December gold rose $62.20, or 1.51%, to $4,170.10 an ounce, ending a three-day losing streak.

Concept of the Day

Producer Price Index (PPI)

The Producer Price Index measures the average change in prices that domestic producers receive for their output. Where CPI tracks what consumers pay at the register, PPI tracks prices earlier in the supply chain: what a manufacturer, wholesaler or service provider charges. It is often read as a pipeline signal, because cost increases at the producer level can later be passed on to consumers, or absorbed as lower profit margins. Headline PPI includes food and energy, which are volatile, so analysts also watch measures that strip them out. The core measure Thursday's coverage highlighted excludes food, energy and trade services, because trade margins can swing sharply as retailers and wholesalers change their markups. Comparing the monthly change with the year-over-year change helps separate a one-off spike from a sustained trend. PPI does not map one-for-one to CPI. Some producer costs never reach consumers, and margins can compress or widen. Still, a large upside surprise raises the odds that inflation stays elevated, which matters for how central banks set interest rates.

Why it matters

Thursday's September PPI was a blowout: +1.3% m/m versus 0.6% expected and +6.3% y/y, the largest since 2022, with gasoline up 20.3% in September. Core ex food, energy and trade also ran hot at +0.5% m/m and +5% y/y. Yet hike odds fell to 27.1% from 37% and the 10-year yield dropped about 13 bps, a reminder that markets trade the reaction function, not just the print. The energy-driven headline gave traders room to look through it.

What to Watch

Wed, Oct 28

FOMC rate decision

The Oct 27-28 meeting decides whether the Fed hikes, with traders pricing 27.1% odds of a hike after the hot PPI.

Thu, Oct 29

Q3 GDP (Advance Estimate)

The first read on third-quarter growth lands the day after the Fed decision.

Thu, Oct 29

September Personal Income and Outlays (PCE inflation)

PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and will show whether the hot CPI and PPI readings carry through.