Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Chip Selloff and Mixed Bank Earnings Leave Stocks Flat Ahead of a Hot CPI Print
Key Indicators
S&P 500 (Tue close)
7,805.45
-0.02% (unchanged)Nasdaq Composite (Tue close)
27,204.38
-0.15% (down)Dow Jones Industrial Average (Tue close)
51,670.10
-0.35% (down)WTI Crude Oil (Tue settle)
$94.14
+0.4% (up)Brent Crude Oil (Tue settle)
$105.69
-0.9% (down)Market Recap
Tuesday's close: indexes slip as chips fall
U.S. stocks ended slightly lower Tuesday, October 13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 180.45 points (0.35%) to 51,670.10. The S&P 500 slipped 0.02% to 7,805.45, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.15% to 27,204.38. Semiconductor stocks were the main drag as many chipmakers extended recent losses, while investors digested the first round of big-bank earnings and waited for Wednesday's September CPI report.
Big banks report mixed results
JPMorgan Chase reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that missed analyst expectations, though it raised its 2026 net interest income guidance. Wells Fargo fell about 3% on mixed quarterly numbers, and Goldman Sachs slipped 0.2% even though its third-quarter revenue beat expectations. New York Fed President John Williams said he still sees one more rate hike as appropriate this year but does not currently expect another in 2027.
Wednesday: hot CPI lifts rate-hike bets and sinks stocks
September CPI, released this morning, rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August. Gasoline rose 9.1% in the month and accounted for over half of the monthly increase. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y, versus the 0.2% and 2.5% economists expected. Per Reuters, traders now price a 60% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike, up from 21.6% before the data. At 12:30 p.m. ET the S&P 500 was down 1.10%, the Nasdaq 1.66% and the Dow 0.30%. Oracle lost about 7.8%, CoreWeave and Nebius each fell over 11%, Bank of America fell about 5.3% after setting aside $1.2 billion for regulatory fines, and consumer staples (+1.7%) and health care (+2.1%) rose.
Oil: WTI edges up, Brent slips
WTI for November delivery settled Tuesday at $94.14 a barrel, up about 0.4%, while December Brent settled at $105.69, down about 0.9%. Markets continue to weigh Russian diesel supply prospects against the Saudi-Houthi conflict.
Concept of the Day
Core vs. Headline Inflation
Headline inflation measures the price change of the entire consumer basket, including food and energy. Core inflation strips out food and energy, which are volatile and driven by supply shocks such as weather, wars and OPEC decisions. The idea is that core gives a cleaner read on underlying, persistent price pressure, the part that monetary policy can actually influence. The two can diverge sharply. When gasoline jumps, headline CPI surges while core barely moves, as in September 2026, when gasoline rose 9.1% and drove over half of the monthly gain. Central banks usually look through one-off energy spikes, but not if they feed into expectations, wages, or the prices of other goods like transport and airfares. Core has limits too. Households do buy gasoline and food, so a long energy shock still erodes purchasing power and can seep into core through second-round effects. Analysts therefore watch both measures, plus services-ex-housing and survey-based inflation expectations, to judge whether a spike is temporary or becoming entrenched.
Why it matters
Today's September CPI is a live example. Headline CPI rose 3.7% y/y, driven by gasoline, but core at 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m also beat the 2.5% and 0.2% economists expected. That core miss is why rate-hike odds jumped to 60% from 21.6% (LSEG) and why the S&P 500 was down 1.10% at midday: markets read it as evidence the energy shock is leaking into the broader price level, so the Fed may not look through it.
What to Watch
Thu, Oct 15
September Producer Price Index (PPI)
It shows wholesale inflation pressure and can confirm or soften the hot CPI signal.
Thu, Oct 15
September Advance Retail Sales
It gauges consumer spending, the largest part of the economy, as gasoline costs climb.
Wed, Oct 28
FOMC rate decision
With hike odds now at 60% after CPI, the decision sets the policy tone for yields and stocks.
Thu, Oct 29
Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation
The day after the Fed decision, they give a read on growth and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.