Thursday, September 10, 2026
Wholesale Inflation Runs Hot as Oil Tops $100 and Yields Hit 2026 Highs
Key Indicators
S&P 500
7,594.23
-0.55% (down)Nasdaq Composite
26,108.50
-0.55% (down)Dow Jones Industrial Average
52,071.14
-0.59% (down)10-Year Treasury Yield
4.91%
+~10 bps, highest since 2023 (up)VIX
17.70
+7.53% (up)WTI Crude Oil
$101.90
+6.1% (up)Gold
$4,401.20/oz
-1.33% (down)Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
~$76,964
-1.7% (down)Market Recap
Stocks Fall for a Fourth Straight Session as Yields and Oil Surge
The S&P 500 fell about 0.55% to roughly 7,594, the Nasdaq Composite dropped about 0.55% to roughly 26,109, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid about 0.59% to roughly 52,071 in Thursday trading, marking a fourth consecutive session of losses. The declines came as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 2023 and oil prices surged past $100 a barrel, a combination that pressured risk assets broadly and hit long-duration growth stocks hardest.
Hot Wholesale Inflation Keeps a Fed Rate Hike on the Table
August's Producer Price Index rose 0.4% month-over-month, matching expectations, but climbed 5.4% year-over-year — above forecasts and up from July's pace. Energy costs, which jumped 4.2% for the month and were driven in large part by a 24.1% spike in diesel prices, accounted for more than three-quarters of the broad-based increase. The report keeps pressure on the Fed heading into next week's meeting: fed funds futures now price roughly two-in-three odds of a rate hike rather than a hold.
Oil Extends Surge — Brent Near $105, WTI Breaks $100
Brent crude climbed roughly 4% to around $105 a barrel, its highest level since May, while U.S. benchmark WTI crude rose more than 4% to above $101 — the first time WTI has cleared the $100 mark in this stretch. The move extends this week's run-up tied to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, which have raised fears of disruptions to Middle East energy supply and to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the corridor through which a large share of the world's seaborne oil passes.
10-Year Yield Hits Highest Level Since 2023 as Hike Odds Climb
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped about 10 basis points to roughly 4.91%, its highest level since 2023, while the 2-year yield rose about 9 basis points to around 4.52%. The move reflects a sharp shift in rate expectations: traders had been leaning toward the Fed holding rates steady earlier this summer, but fed funds futures now show roughly two-in-three odds of a quarter-point hike at next Wednesday's FOMC decision.
Movers: Freeport-McMoRan Slides on Copper, Meta Gains on Upgrade
Freeport-McMoRan tumbled roughly 7-8% and Southern Copper fell more than 6% as copper prices dropped. Meta Platforms rose about 1.4% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock, citing meaningful upside from its AI model rollout. Macy's beat second-quarter revenue estimates and raised full-year guidance, but shares slipped about 1.6% in premarket trading. Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 206,000, roughly in line with expectations, and investors are also awaiting after-the-bell earnings from Oracle and Adobe.
Concept of the Day
PPI vs. CPI: Wholesale Inflation vs. Consumer Inflation
The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) both measure inflation, but at different points in the supply chain. PPI tracks the prices producers and sellers receive for their output — the wholesale cost of goods and services before they reach the end consumer. CPI tracks what households actually pay at the register. Because PPI sits earlier in the chain, economists often treat it as a leading indicator: if input and wholesale costs are rising, that pressure can eventually show up in consumer prices as businesses pass costs along. That pass-through isn't automatic or one-to-one, though. Companies can absorb higher input costs by shrinking profit margins rather than raising prices, especially in competitive industries, or they can pass along more than their cost increase if demand is strong. This is exactly why today's PPI report matters for interpreting tomorrow's CPI: August's PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, hotter than expected, but more than three-quarters of that increase traced back to energy prices, particularly a 24.1% jump in diesel. The Fed pays closer attention to "core" measures that strip out food and energy precisely because those categories are volatile and don't always reflect underlying inflation trends — so a PPI beat driven mostly by energy doesn't guarantee a matching beat in core CPI. Still, a hot, broad-based PPI print raises the bar for what counts as a reassuring CPI number. If diesel and energy costs are also pushing up transportation and freight expenses across the economy, that pressure can leak into a wider set of consumer prices over the following months. Traders who watch PPI aren't betting that it perfectly predicts CPI — they're using it to gauge the direction and composition of inflationary pressure building up one rung down the supply chain.
Why it matters
Today's PPI print is exactly why this distinction matters right now: a hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation number, even one driven mostly by energy, has already pushed fed funds futures to price roughly two-in-three odds of a hike at next week's FOMC meeting. Tomorrow's CPI report is now the last major inflation checkpoint before that decision — a hot core reading would reinforce today's hike bets, while a soft one could quickly reverse them.
What to Watch
Fri, Sep 11
Consumer Price Index (CPI) - August 2026
The last major inflation reading before next week's Fed decision, especially important after today's hotter-than-expected PPI.
Wed, Sep 16
Retail Sales - August 2026
Shows whether consumer spending is holding up as oil prices spike and borrowing costs stay elevated.
Wed, Sep 16
FOMC Rate Decision
The Fed decides whether to hike, hold, or cut, with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections.