Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Nvidia Sheds $130B on AI Financing Fears as Oil Tops $82 and Wall Street Slips From Records Ahead of Wednesday's CPI
Key Indicators
S&P 500
7,753.11
-4.53 (-0.06%) (down)Nasdaq Composite
26,605.36
-85.26 (-0.32%) (down)Dow Jones Industrial Average
53,975.98
-60.95 (-0.11%) (down)10-Year Treasury Yield
4.71%
+4 bps (up)VIX
15.46
+0.56 (+3.76%) (up)WTI Crude Oil
$82.13
+~5% (up)Market Recap
Wall Street pulls back from Friday's record as oil-driven inflation worries return
U.S. stocks retreated modestly Monday from Friday's all-time highs. The S&P 500 slipped 4.53 points (-0.06%) to 7,753.11, the Nasdaq Composite fell 85.26 points (-0.32%) to 26,605.36, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 60.95 points (-0.11%) to 53,975.98. The pullback tracked a jump in crude oil, which is reviving worries that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated just two days before Wednesday's July CPI report, the week's key catalyst. The VIX, Wall Street's volatility gauge, climbed 3.76% to 15.46 - still low historically, but a notable jump for a single session. Even with oil rising, Fed funds futures now imply just a 52% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting, down from 67% a week earlier, as last Friday's surprisingly weak July jobs report (payrolls fell 23,000) continues to argue against tighter policy.
Oil tops $82 as the Iran standoff drags on, pushing Treasury yields to a monthly high
WTI crude jumped roughly 5% Monday to settle at $82.13 a barrel, and extended its gain into Tuesday, trading above $83 for a fourth straight session, as doubts grow that Washington and Tehran will reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump told Axios over the weekend that the U.S. is 'only semi-negotiating' with Iran and said he would lean on the existing U.S. naval blockade to pressure Tehran rather than launch another round of airstrikes, while also issuing a fresh set of demands that have clouded the odds of a near-term agreement. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply. The rising energy costs pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up about 4 basis points to 4.71%, its highest level so far this month, as bond investors priced in the risk that expensive oil keeps headline inflation elevated even as the labor market cools.
Nvidia sheds $130 billion, Intel slides 4% as AI financing deals spook investors
Chip stocks led the market lower Monday on worries about how the AI buildout is being funded, not on any change in AI demand itself. Nvidia fell nearly 3% to around $217 a share, erasing about $130 billion in market value, after the company partnered with major asset managers - including Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, and Goldman Sachs - on a $500 billion financing package for AI infrastructure. Rather than celebrating the scale of the deal, investors focused on the risk of 'circular financing': arrangements where money that originates with the chipmaker flows back around to fund purchases of its own products, making demand look more organic than it is. Intel fell more than 4% after unveiling a roughly $15-20 billion stock offering to fund its own AI and manufacturing buildout, diluting existing shareholders to raise the cash instead.
Riot Platforms jumps more than 25% after hours on a $9.1 billion Anthropic data-center deal
Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms closed down 5.46% during Monday's regular session, then surged more than 25% in after-hours trading once it announced a 20-year, $9.1 billion lease deal with AI company Anthropic. The deal covers 191 megawatts of computing capacity at Riot's Rockdale, Texas campus, runs through June 2048, and comes with extension options that could push its total value to roughly $16.1 billion. It's the latest example of a bitcoin-mining company repurposing sites originally built for crypto mining into AI data centers, and it extends Anthropic's recent run of enormous compute deals, which also includes a $10 billion agreement with Volta Infra Holdings in Norway and a nearly $45 billion computing purchase from Elon Musk's xAI in May.
CoreWeave's earnings, due after Tuesday's close, are the next test for the AI infrastructure trade
AI cloud provider CoreWeave reports second-quarter results after Tuesday's market close, with a conference call scheduled for 5pm ET. Wall Street expects revenue of roughly $2.55 billion, up about 111% year over year, alongside a loss of around $1.23 per share. The stock has already climbed roughly 26% over the past week heading into the print, so expectations are high. The number investors will watch most closely is the backlog: CoreWeave's remaining performance obligations nearly quadrupled year over year to $99.4 billion last quarter, and the market wants to see whether actual revenue can keep ramping fast enough to catch up to that backlog. The stakes are real - each of the company's last five earnings reports has been followed by a stock selloff.
Concept of the Day
Vendor Financing (Circular Financing)
Vendor financing happens when a company provides capital - a loan, a credit line, or even an equity investment - to its own customer, and that customer then uses the money to buy the company's products or services. On the income statement, it looks like ordinary revenue from an independent buyer. In reality, some or all of the cash behind that purchase originated with the seller. When two or more companies invest in each other and then transact with one another, the arrangement is often called 'circular financing' - money moves in a loop between the same small set of players, and each leg of the loop can get booked as real, organic revenue growth even though no new outside capital or demand actually entered the system. This isn't a new phenomenon. In the late 1990s telecom buildout, equipment makers like Lucent and Nortel extended billions of dollars in vendor financing to fledgling telecom carriers so those carriers could afford to buy networking gear. Reported revenue growth at the equipment vendors looked spectacular for a few years, but a meaningful share of it was manufactured by the vendors' own financing arms rather than reflecting genuine end-customer demand. When credit tightened and the dot-com bubble burst, the undercapitalized carriers defaulted, and the vendors who had financed them collapsed right alongside them, because the 'demand' had never been independent to begin with. The concept isn't automatically a red flag - lots of legitimate business financing (supplier credit, customer equipment leases) looks superficially similar and creates real value on both sides. The distinction that matters is whether the financing is enabling demand that would otherwise not exist, versus simply smoothing the timing of a transaction that would have happened anyway. Investors evaluating a fast-growing company's numbers need to ask which one they're looking at, because the two produce identical-looking revenue lines with very different levels of durability.
Why it matters
Monday's tape made this concept concrete rather than academic: Nvidia fell nearly 3% and shed $130 billion in market value on the same day it announced a $500 billion AI infrastructure financing partnership with Apollo, Blackstone, and Goldman Sachs, because investors immediately started asking whether the deal represents genuine incremental demand or a circular arrangement that flatters both sides' growth numbers. Intel's decision to raise $15-20 billion through a dilutive stock sale, rather than vendor credit, is a reminder that there's more than one way to fund the same AI buildout - and the funding mechanism a company chooses says a lot about how confident it is that end-customer demand alone can support the spending. Investors weighing AI infrastructure stocks right now need to separate durable, independently-funded demand from capital that's simply being recycled among a small set of interconnected players.
What to Watch
Wed, Aug 12
CPI (July)
July inflation data is the week's key catalyst, and rising oil prices raise the risk of a hotter-than-expected headline number even if the core reading stays contained.
Thu, Aug 13
PPI (July) and weekly jobless claims
Producer prices give an early read on pipeline inflation pressure a day after CPI, while jobless claims add another data point on the labor market after July's weak jobs report.
Fri, Aug 14
Retail Sales (July) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August, preliminary)
Together these show whether consumers are still spending and feeling confident even as oil prices rise and job growth slows.
Wed, Aug 19
FOMC Minutes (July 28-29 meeting)
The minutes will show how seriously the committee was weighing a rate hike before the weak July jobs report and this week's inflation and oil-driven data reshaped the picture.