Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Wall Street Hits Fresh Records as Shopify Soars 28%, But AMD and SpaceX Slide Despite Beating Estimates
Key Indicators
S&P 500
7,772.73
+36.21 (+0.47%) (up)Nasdaq Composite
26,641.86
+56.87 (+0.21%) (up)Dow Jones Industrial Average
54,735.24
+649.36 (+1.20%) (up)10-Year Treasury Yield
4.63%
+1 bp (unchanged)VIX
16.93
+0.43 (+2.61%) (up)WTI Crude Oil
$76.01
+0.32% (up)Gold
$4,293.40
+140.80 (+3.39%) (up)Market Recap
Records keep falling as blockbuster earnings drive a third straight rally
The S&P 500 climbed further into record territory Wednesday, adding 0.47% to 7,772.73, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.20% to a record 54,735.24 and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.21% to 26,641.86 - all three notching fresh all-time highs. The gains build directly on Tuesday's blowout session, when the S&P 500 surged 1.79% to a then-record 7,736.52, the Dow soared 907.47 points (+1.71%) to 54,085.88, and the Nasdaq jumped 2.59% to 26,584.99. With roughly 61% of S&P 500 companies having reported second-quarter results, about 86% have beaten earnings estimates and 77% have beaten revenue estimates - one of the strongest beat rates of the cycle - giving the market confidence to keep pushing into record highs even as today's session brought a dense, mixed slate of earnings from Shopify, AMD, SpaceX, Eli Lilly, Disney and Uber. The VIX, Wall Street's volatility gauge, actually rose 2.61% to 16.93 alongside the rally, a sign that traders are still paying up for protection given how much good news is now priced into stocks.
Shopify jumps as much as 28% on a blowout quarter - Q3 guide implies a sixth straight quarter of 30%+ growth
Shopify shares jumped as much as 28% in premarket trading and were still up roughly 17-18% during Wednesday's session after the e-commerce platform reported second-quarter revenue of $3.58 billion, up 34% year-over-year and above the $3.46 billion analysts expected. Gross merchandise volume - the total value of sales flowing through Shopify's platform - grew 32% to $115.6 billion, gross profit rose 31% to $1.71 billion, and adjusted earnings per share came in at 42 cents versus 40 cents expected. Free cash flow reached $654 million, an 18% margin versus 16% a year ago. For the third quarter, Shopify guided to revenue growth in the low-30% range, well above the 26.3% analysts had penciled in, which would mark a sixth consecutive quarter of 30%-plus growth and helped ease investor worries about competition from new AI-powered tools aimed at small merchants.
AMD and SpaceX both beat estimates and both got sold off - AI capex is now the bar, not revenue
Two of the day's most closely watched reports showed that beating Wall Street's numbers isn't enough anymore. AMD reported second-quarter revenue of $11.54 billion, up 50% year-over-year and above the $11.31 billion expected, with adjusted earnings of $1.66 per share versus $1.62 estimated and an adjusted operating margin of 27%, more than double last year's 12%. AMD guided third-quarter revenue to roughly $13 billion, implying 41% growth - yet the stock still fell about 7-8%, as traders wanted an even hotter number and questioned how quickly AMD can close the gap with Nvidia. SpaceX, reporting its first results as a public company, posted second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year and well above the $6.81 billion expected, with adjusted EBITDA nearly tripling to $3.5 billion. But the company also disclosed $18.4 billion in total capital spending, including $15.8 billion tied to AI infrastructure - more than double the $7.7 billion spent in the first quarter - and posted a net loss of $541 million. SpaceX shares fell as much as 11-12% in premarket trading and were still down roughly 8% during the session, with investors also bracing for an insider lockup expiration on Thursday that could more than double the number of freely tradable shares.
Trump signals an Iran deal on the Strait of Hormuz could land 'tomorrow or the next day' as oil steadies
President Trump said Tuesday evening that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz - the waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas once passed - could come 'tomorrow or the next day,' adding that 'a lot of progress has been made.' Iran, Oman and Qatar have reportedly been negotiating a framework that would let Iran retain a period of dominant control over the strait, lasting one to three months, while allowing European mine-clearing operations to proceed. Crude oil, which sank about 5% on Tuesday to below $76 a barrel and is down roughly 10% for the week, edged up slightly Wednesday to $76.01 (+0.32%) as traders weighed how close a deal really is against continuing uncertainty over Iran's terms. The 10-year Treasury yield held roughly steady around 4.63%, little changed from Tuesday's close near 4.62%, after tumbling more than 6 basis points a day earlier on the same de-escalation optimism.
ISM services data sends mixed signals as Eli Lilly and Disney jump on earnings beats, Uber slips on soft guidance
The ISM Services PMI for July came in at 54.1, essentially flat versus June's 54.0 and just below the 54.5 economists expected. Beneath the headline, new orders accelerated to 57.2 from 55.1 and business activity jumped to 59.1 from 55.4, but the employment component fell back into contraction at 47.4 from 51.2, and prices paid jumped to 70.3 from 67.7 - a sign that price pressures in the largest part of the economy are still building even as hiring cools. On the earnings side, Eli Lilly rose about 4% after posting adjusted earnings of $8.38 per share, far above the $6.07 expected, on revenue of $22.97 billion, up 48% year-over-year, and raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $85-87 billion from $82-85 billion. Disney climbed roughly 3% after adjusted earnings of $2.06 per share, up from $1.61 a year ago, on revenue of $25.25 billion, up 7%, powered by Toy Story 5 at the box office, higher theme-park attendance, and streaming profit that more than doubled. Uber fell about 5% after guiding third-quarter gross bookings to $58.25-60.25 billion and adjusted earnings per share to 84-88 cents, both slightly below Wall Street's consensus at the midpoint.
Concept of the Day
Priced for Perfection
'Priced for perfection' describes a stock (or market) whose price already assumes an excellent outcome, so that even genuinely good news isn't good enough to push the price higher - and merely solid news can send it sharply lower. It's the reason a company can beat every published Wall Street estimate and still see its stock fall: the published consensus is only one benchmark, and often the actual bar embedded in the stock price - sometimes called the 'whisper number' - sits well above it, especially for high-growth or high-multiple names that have already run up sharply. Today's session is a clean illustration. AMD beat on revenue, EPS, and margin, and even guided third-quarter revenue to $13 billion, implying 41% growth - and the stock still fell roughly 7-8%, because traders wanted an even hotter number and remain unsure how quickly AMD can close the gap with Nvidia. SpaceX beat revenue estimates by a wide margin in its first public earnings report, nearly doubling sales - but its stock fell 8-12% because an $18.4 billion capital-spending bill, with $15.8 billion tied to AI infrastructure, raised questions about margins and cash burn that outweighed the top-line beat. Shopify, by contrast, didn't just beat estimates - it guided third-quarter growth to the low-30% range against a 26.3% consensus, clearing whatever bar was priced in and jumping as much as 28%. The practical skill is separating the headline beat/miss from the market's actual, unstated expectations. Look at the size of the guidance raise relative to what was already priced in, whether spending increases read as productive investment or margin risk, and how far a stock has already run into its print - a name up sharply into earnings needs a much bigger beat to satisfy the market than one that's been flat or falling.
Why it matters
With the S&P 500 setting records for a third straight session and Q2 earnings beating estimates at an unusually high rate, expectations across the market are stretched - which is exactly the backdrop where 'priced for perfection' dynamics show up most starkly, as AMD, SpaceX, and Uber all demonstrated today. For investors, the lesson is to stop reading earnings reactions purely as verdicts on business quality; a stock falling on a beat often says more about how much good news was already priced in than about the company's actual trajectory, while Shopify's 28% jump shows how much room there still is for a stock to move when it convincingly clears an already-high bar.
What to Watch
Thu, Aug 6
Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
The weekly claims data gives an early read on labor-market health ahead of Friday's more comprehensive jobs report.
Fri, Aug 7
Employment Situation (July jobs report)
The next full labor-market read will help clarify whether the economy is cooling enough to justify a Fed hold or strong enough to bolster the case for a September hike.
Wed, Aug 12
CPI (July)
The next inflation reading will show whether falling oil prices are offsetting the price pressures flagged in today's ISM services report.
Wed, Aug 19
FOMC Minutes (July 28-29 meeting)
The minutes will detail the reasoning behind the Fed's July decision and how seriously the committee is weighing a September move.