Tuesday, August 4, 2026
S&P 500 Hits Fresh Record as Palantir Soars 18% and Caterpillar Tops $20 Billion in Sales
Key Indicators
S&P 500
7,692.49
+91.99 (+1.21%) (up)Nasdaq Composite
26,366.04
+452.14 (+1.74%) (up)Dow Jones Industrial Average
53,978.02
+799.61 (+1.50%) (up)10-Year Treasury Yield
4.64%
-4 bps (down)VIX
15.95
+0.09 (+0.57%) (up)WTI Crude Oil
$76.67
-4.57% (down)Gold
$4,138.90
+1.18% (up)Market Recap
Indexes hit fresh records as blowout earnings from Palantir and Caterpillar reinforce the AI capex trade
The S&P 500 climbed 1.21% to 7,692.49, a fresh all-time high and its first record close since June, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.74% to 26,366.04 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.50% to 53,978.02, also a record. It's the fourth straight day of gains for the S&P 500. The rally was powered by two blowout earnings reports - Palantir and Caterpillar - that reassured investors AI-driven spending is translating into real revenue and industrial demand, alongside fading Middle East war risk. The VIX ticked up slightly to 15.95, a reminder that even record-setting sessions carry some hedging demand, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased about 4 basis points to 4.64%.
Palantir surges 18% after 'otherworldly' quarter - revenue up 93%, guidance raised again
Palantir shares jumped roughly 18% after the company reported second-quarter revenue of $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year and well above the $1.80 billion analysts expected, with adjusted EPS of 41 cents versus 35 cents expected. U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year and U.S. government revenue climbed 90%, prompting CEO Alex Karp to call it an 'otherworldly' quarter. Palantir raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.15-8.158 billion from a prior $7.65-7.662 billion range, and guided third-quarter revenue to $2.16-2.164 billion versus consensus of roughly $2.0 billion. Analysts at Citi and Deutsche Bank raised price targets following the report.
Caterpillar tops $20 billion in quarterly sales for the first time, lifted by AI-driven data center demand
Caterpillar shares rose sharply after the company reported second-quarter sales and revenue of $20.5 billion, up 24% from $16.6 billion a year earlier and the first time it has cleared $20 billion in a single quarter. Adjusted EPS came in at $8.17, well above the $6.20 analysts expected. Construction Industries sales rose 35% to $8.3 billion, with North American construction demand up 50%, while Power & Energy revenue grew 17% to $8.2 billion as power-generation sales tied to data-center buildouts climbed 29%. Caterpillar raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to the mid-to-high-teens percentage range, up from a previous low-double-digit target.
Oil sinks ~4.6% as Bessent signals a Strait of Hormuz deal could land within days
WTI crude fell 4.57% to $76.67 a barrel from Monday's $80.34 close, extending its retreat from July's war-risk highs after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there was 'a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow' on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The decline builds on Monday's roughly 6% drop, which followed President Trump's decision to call off a planned strike on Iran. Falling oil prices helped ease inflation concerns and contributed to the pullback in Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield down about 4 basis points to 4.64% from Monday's 4.68% close.
Amazon dips after Bezos files to sell $4 billion in stock; SpaceX reports first-ever earnings after the bell
Amazon shares fell more than 2% at the open after a filing showed Jeff Bezos plans to sell about 15 million shares worth roughly $4.07 billion under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, executed through Morgan Stanley following Monday's record close of $284.02 and Amazon's crossing of the $3 trillion market-cap threshold. It's Bezos's second large sale window this year, after offloading 25 million shares for nearly $5.7 billion between late June and late July. Separately, SpaceX reported its first quarterly results as a public company after the close; heading into the print, shares had already fallen roughly 15% from their IPO price and nearly 49% from their June 16 high, having shed more than $1 trillion in market value from that peak. Investors were focused on Starlink subscriber growth and free cash flow across the company's Space, Connectivity, and AI infrastructure segments.
Concept of the Day
Rule 10b5-1 Trading Plans
A Rule 10b5-1 plan is a pre-arranged, written schedule that corporate insiders - executives, board members, large shareholders - set up in advance to buy or sell company stock on a fixed timetable or trigger. Once the plan is adopted, the trades execute automatically according to its terms, regardless of what the insider knows at the time of execution. The SEC created this framework specifically so insiders, who almost always possess material non-public information about their own companies, can still trade their own stock without running afoul of insider-trading law - the defense only works if the plan was adopted in good faith, at a time when the insider was not aware of undisclosed material information, and typically requires a cooling-off period (generally 90 days or more) between adoption and the first trade. The practical effect is that a 10b5-1 sale is mechanically disconnected from the news of the day it executes on. Bezos's plan to sell roughly $4 billion in Amazon shares was adopted back on November 14, 2025 - months before today's filing - so the timing of the disclosure landing right after Amazon crossed $3 trillion in market value is coincidental to the plan's pre-set schedule, not a same-day decision by Bezos to cash out on the news. That said, markets still often treat these disclosures as modestly bearish in the short term, partly out of habit and partly because a scheduled sale still represents real share supply hitting the market, even if it says nothing about the seller's current view. The key analytical skill is separating the plan's structure from its market reaction. A large, sudden, discretionary sale by an insider right after a stock hits a new high is a meaningfully different signal than a sale that was locked in via a pre-scheduled plan announced nine months earlier. Reading the actual filing - the plan's adoption date, its size relative to the insider's total holdings, and whether it's a new plan or an existing one executing on schedule - tells you far more than the headline number alone.
Why it matters
Amazon's 2% dip on the Bezos filing is a live example of a stock reacting to a scheduled, pre-committed sale rather than a fresh signal about the company's prospects - especially notable on a day the broader market and Amazon's own AI-driven momentum are otherwise strongly positive. For investors, the takeaway isn't to ignore insider-sale headlines, but to check the plan's adoption date and size before reading them as a verdict on where the stock is headed; a 10b5-1 sale set up nine months ago says essentially nothing about what the seller thinks of the stock today.
What to Watch
Wed, Aug 5
ISM Services PMI (July)
The services read will show whether today's manufacturing- and industrial-led strength is broadening across the economy.
Fri, Aug 7
Employment Situation (July jobs report)
The next full labor-market read will help clarify whether the economy is cooling enough to justify a Fed hold or strong enough to bolster the case for a September hike.
Wed, Aug 12
CPI (July)
The next inflation reading will show whether falling oil prices are starting to show up in headline numbers, a key input for the Fed's September decision.
Wed, Aug 19
FOMC Minutes (July 28-29 meeting)
The minutes will detail the reasoning behind the Fed's July decision and how seriously the committee is weighing a September move.